As the anticipation builds for the results of the state assembly elections on December 3, the exit polls for Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Mizoram have emerged, predicting a fierce competition between the Congress and the BJP in pivotal states. Let’s delve into the key takeaways and potential political shifts based on these projections, keeping in mind the significance of these results as a prelude to the 2024 general elections.
Telangana Triumphs?
- Congress Surge: Telangana might witness a significant upheaval if the exit polls hold true. Projections suggest that the Congress could ascend to power, displacing the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) to second place, with the BJP trailing as a distant third. This would mark a historic change, considering K Chandrashekar Rao’s uninterrupted tenure as chief minister since the formation of Telangana in 2014.
- Seat Projections: According to various exit polls, the Congress is expected to secure 63-79 seats, while BRS may claim 31-47 seats in the 119-member assembly. Jan ki Baat’s prediction puts the Congress at 48-64 seats, BRS at 40-55, and the BJP at 7-13. The battle remains tight, with different polls offering varied projections, adding an air of unpredictability to Telangana’s political landscape.
Madhya Pradesh Maneuvers
- BJP’s Advantage: In Madhya Pradesh, the exit polls largely favor the BJP. Despite the Congress dismissing these predictions, asserting that the nation is governed by vision, not television, the projections indicate a potential advantage for the BJP.
- Projected Results: India Today-Axis My India predicts that the BJP will maintain its dominance in Madhya Pradesh, securing 140-162 seats out of 230. The Congress is expected to attain 60-90 seats, as per the same poll. Other polls, such as India TV-CNX, Times Now-ETG, and Republic TV, present varying seat projections, reinforcing the uncertainty in Madhya Pradesh’s electoral outcome.
Rajasthan’s Rivalry
- Neck-and-Neck Battle: Rajasthan emerges as a battleground between the BJP and the Congress, with smaller parties and independent candidates potentially influencing the formation of the next government.
- Seat Predictions: India Today-My Axis envisions a close contest, projecting 80-100 seats for the BJP and 86-106 seats for the Congress out of 199. India TV-CNX predicts 94-104 seats for Congress and 80-90 seats for BJP. The divergence in seat projections among different polls underscores the closely contested nature of the Rajasthan elections.
Chhattisgarh Chronicles
- Congress Continuation: Chhattisgarh is anticipated to witness the Congress retaining power, closely trailed by the BJP. Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel expresses confidence, predicting an increase in Congress numbers on the counting day.
- Projected Seat Distribution: India Today-Axis My India foresees 40-50 seats for the Congress and 36-46 seats for the BJP out of 90. ABP C-Voter and Republic TV exit polls offer additional seat projections, emphasizing the competitive dynamic in Chhattisgarh’s political landscape.
Mizoram’s Movement
- ZPM’s Triumph: Mizoram is poised for a Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) triumph, displacing the Mizo National Front. Both the Congress and the BJP lag behind as distant third and fourth contenders.
- Expected Results: According to India Today-Axis My India, ZPM is likely to secure 28-35 seats, while the Mizo National Front is predicted to claim 3-7 seats out of 40. The closeness of the contest is highlighted by varying predictions from different exit polls, underscoring the significance of smaller parties in Mizoram.
In conclusion, the exit poll predictions offer a glimpse into the potential electoral landscape, yet the final results on December 3 will unveil the true political panorama in these five states.
